Відео

Didn't age well its 2024 and gas cars are still half the cost.

Lol its June 2024 all his predictions are completely wrong. Lol

Would love to see this updated for 2024

The COVID pandemic set all these predictions back by 5 years. But, they’re still going to happen.

Superb stuff, thank you Tony for bringing us this inspirational view of the wonderful future that is ours to grasp!

None of your suggestions are going to save you in the end.

Who wants to tell this guy we're not going to be here in 40 years?

And the cost of solar per Watt is now several-fold cheaper than the 0.45 USD per Watt that he showed, even with tariffs, especially adjusted for inflation. The point about solar and battery becoming cheaper than transmission, and thus cheaper than grid power even if the latter had zero production cost, is a bit shocking, even to someone who's followed these topics a bit over the decades. If it starts to be cheaper for houses to be off grid than on, then I wonder if houses will be wired for AC anymore, and if appliances will all be DC. As Seba mentions, there'd still be need for a grid for industry, for EV fast chargers, and so forth. But I wonder if even that will have any reason to remain AC, which has huge inductive losses.

If a dairy farmer cant sell hid old cows for burgers and mince meat a big part of their income disapears.

we are in 2024 and there are no EVs that cost 20K - he said that by 2025 all vehicles will be electrical? No way!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

but what about producing an EV. I heard it's much more energy consuming to build an EV rather than a standard car. Anybody can explain? and what about the batteries, they need to be changed and they are highly polluting

If TaaS can be $0.20 per mile or less I am selling my car. In fact, I will sell my car if it is $0.50 per mile. If the cost is around $1.00 per mile I might not.

IMO Saudi Audience was listening to him very carefully and respectfully. They understand that within 10-15 years their profits from oil will shrink. On the other hand they are full of money and Mr Seba's visionary could give them the direction in which sectors to move capital and invest in new technologies in order to achieve biggest profits.

I have not followed or heard of Tony until recently. But listening to his talks, assessing the subject matter, and seeing that this particular talk is in San Francisco - the home of silicon valley, I cannot help but wonder if he is 'the chicken or the egg'. What I mean is, he is literally articulating a blueprint to technologists on how to profit from disruption. It's kind of like what engineers are doing with hollywood movies. Creatives make up a vision of the future, and visionless engineering types go get to work on it. Case in point, the movie iRobot. RObots were at a theater near you and are now coming to your town. Here Tony is giving silicon valley a road map of what to target. Some may say he is a visionary that saw it coming. Maybe so. But being out there speaking and writing about it puts ideas in the heads of software and hardware engineers looking for project ideas, right? So, who is the chicken, and who is the egg? It may have happened anyway. But he is providing finer focus to the path forward. So is he architect or keen observer?

Curious to see grid disruption. Disruptive use of electricity on a very aging grid will literally cause rupture... not to mention energy needed to replace fossil fuel based energy.

Please, can anybody tell me what EVs will change?

Another point of having a long lasting car Ev or Ic.. Easier to re-sell, second hand market. And generally cheaper yo maintain.

Electric cars are not the answer. It’s gotta be something related to hydrogen gas from water Sia.

Solar is a good replacement for coal, but is the same true for Natural gas and Nuclear?

Going from Sugar to High Fructose Corn syrup could be responsible for everyone being fat or diabetic Fake food could be a bad thing. How is fake meat, not processed food? I will stick with whole food for now

Not too long ago this "expert" wrote, “By 2025, gasoline engine cars will be unable to compete with electric vehicles”. It is now 2024, electric car sales are down and the ICE is still doing great. Not too much of a wise man he is.

Thanks Tony , I have had this idea in various forms for years now with AI and Robotics its truely possible. On other things . Time for Billionaries to start designing & building (using AI and Robotics) New Cities on hilly topography with ordinances preventing robots form doing certain types of work Forcing Humans to maintain physical health when travelling within the complex. Construct a very exotic place to thrill the senses when moving about. Younger people and families (with lots of physical energy) will live at the top of the building or hill and old people will live at the bottom (closer to the ground). Slides can be built in to get people to the bottom quickly and for stimulation but returning is a walk. With this sort of utopia , people can then go about a life time of personal and social educations whilst our biological systems gets enough stimulation to maintain health , sanity = bio-happiness. When young people grow in such an environment they will be socialised and physicalised to comprehend the dynamics of a new 'time' paradigm , not based on productivity and efficiency but on liveability and intelligibility... getting from point a to point be in the complex requires 'work' effort that is a part of human physical maintenance.

Meanwhile South Africa now have oil

The main issue is that as you approach 100%, the edge cases get to higher and higher peak prices. Thus peaker plants will still be economical, however they will have a low capacity factor. Edit: Also, you will have to transport the power. You can do this using existing wires if you accept higher losses, but in many cases you will not be able to deliver enough. This indicates that you must add additional flexible demand and transmission lines to the cost. You could use the existing grid connections at nuclear power plants to power electrolysis etc. which also enables you to use the NPPs as backup energy sources. If you have 1GW from the NPP and 1GW from the grid going into 2GW of electrolysis, you can turn it around into a regular 1GW nuclear plant when you need to do so. So the benefit of superpower will also apply to NPPs.

The main takeaway here is that businesses should plan for fluctuating power prices. The hours that aren't covered by SWB will be horrendously expensive, however, if you have a facility currently using fuels, that can also run on electricity, you could do so most of the time, keeping the fuel systems in reserve. Similarly, older coal plants that are having their coal burners replaced with gas. Lower maintenance costs, though with a higher fuel cost, is an advantage when you're providing backup to SWB. Finally, you can make hydrogen electrolyzers that have low capital costs, but low efficiency. This is acceptable when you want to soak up excess electricity.

He makes no sense with super-generation. You build a grid to meet peak demand and suddenly you have 2-3x what you need? Only in the summer when the wind is blowing.

2024 Batteries are now < $50/kwh and getting cheaper Tony's accuracy is astonishing!

Applying the same analysis to the installed production capacity of EV's will show that communist China will win that race. They continuously expand their production capacity to ultimately cover the world demand THANKS TO GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES AND CAR SALES BELOW COST. How blindfolded are our politicians in the West? We still argue that state subsidites are unfair while we lose our industries to China that wins with subsidies. Smart education.

When they start making PF Wagu Ribeye steak I am 100% in

So in the future property taxes will be the greatest expense for most Americans.

Evolution explained in 20 minutes.

Interesting to watch this 4 years later. I think we're in a bit of a slump for EV adoption right now. I think the real takeoff will happen in 2026, not 2025, when the new generation of cheap EVs in the $20k range come in. Also, manufacturing is ramping slower than expected. More factories need to be built. Will be interesting to check back again in another 4 years!

So... uh, how are humans supposed to adapt to all this change?

Instead of batteries for storage why not use the excess energy to pump water up high store it then release it to generate energy

He overlooks a few points. Electric cars were driven worldwide by government subsidies, now that these subsidies have been removed, demand is shrinking rapidly. The prices for these piles of rubbish will therefore certainly fall. Apart from the fact that their electro-smog is extremely hazardous to health, they will probably only be a transitional technology to hybrid vehicles with e.g. hydrogen drive, just as the energy-saving lamp was a transitional technology from the light bulb to the LED lamp. I would also like to see the inclusion of inflation-adjusted data in the future. The fall in manufacturing costs was also possible in conjunction with falling commodity prices since the highs of 2011-12. We are currently running a deficit in energy and raw materials due to a lack of investment in the past. If the price curves here are not adjusted for inflation, they will probably look different in the future. I myself is specialise in the energy and commodity markets.

Autonomy is definitely not real, And so called autonomy is definitely not proven safer, just ask Tesla or the dead passengers of Max Jets. Total lies. No company has signed off on that one yet, and they wont

THis guy is lying his ever loving class off about the electric industries costs coming down, let alone the consumer cost. He must have found a way to clone rare earth elements without cost. This is totally false. Obvious to anyone who knows 2 things about batteries, elements, or what actually powers the grid. (NOT MAGIC)

Anyone who projects the cost of battery minerals to decrease is either straight bull sitting you, or they figured out how to replicate or bypass all Rare Earth Elements. BTW Coal is being suppressed by the w e f hi jackers even though it IS one of the biggest fuels of the energy grid//EV's

agree with everything except the food part . dont think u can change people breakfast , lunch dinner so easily

Poverty is already a social choice

Tony has a few MAJOR things wrong here. I'm a fan of Tony's work. But you can't just say a cow is the most inefficient food production animal or method.... There's A LOT of land that is only really good for growing grasses, not monocrop farming, and cattle keep that land fertile by recycling the grass that grows there. You can't just wipe out cows and monocrop farm everything. We're already doing that and the health of the Earth's soil is degrading rapidly. Cows keep earth fertile, and any talk about getting rid of them is globalist nonsense to control your food supply. Grazing cows keep fields much more healthy than chemical herbicides/pesticides and fake fertilizer!

so we could use the extra electricity to produce fuel, from water hydrolosis

the one thing you are not predicting is the greed of corporations.

This hasn’t aged well, even only a year later: EV demand is tanking now that the early adopters all have one and other people are realizing how wildly impractical they are for many use cases (most apartment dwellers, for instance). Vis a vis fleet sales, Hertz just reversed direction on their EV investment, sold off half of them at a loss and fired their CEO for the blunder.

*All the numbers he quotes for hours of battery storage needed are **_average_** numbers, not the amount required for reliability.* It’s intellectually dishonest. The problem is it’s statistical: You have to decide your tolerance for there being periods of time when there simply isn’t enough energy to go around. How many rolling blackouts are you prepared to tolerate? It’s a very honest question; as with any actuarial calculation, you need to pay to reduce risk, and at some point decide when the cost of risk avoidance is more than it’s worth. When he blithely says you can do anything with solar/wind and batteries, and with a very modest amount of battery storage to boot, he’s not showing any stats that project the expected number and duration of blackouts.

Seba is prescient on a lot of topics, but this video is a good example of just how far wrong he can be. $1 per house for a full day of storage for every house in the US by 2020? 😂 - And he was making this prediction in 2016? I’m astonished that an even average-intelligence, moderately-informed individual could be this far off the mark, let alone a supposedly expert prognosticator. He’s not only not even in the ballpark, he’s barely in the same state.

Hi Tony, chris here in 2024! No Level 4 in sight. 2/3 of people in my country deny electric cars ( germany ). Conservativs and Nazis Partys want to drop the EU stop of producing ICE cars in 2035.

Do not forget geopolitics. China is leading in two of the three technologies: energy and transportation. And they certainly participate in the agricultural transformation.

Society has to make the choice. You can let the people who own the technology own everything and 90 percent of the people nothing. You can make a socialist country like Norway.

All those elites including Tony will be eating real food while the rest of us eat the GM crap that their factories produce. How much food made from bugs was on the menu at Davos? None, they were all eating Wagu beef lobsters and oysters. Depopulation will be another s curve that Tony will fail to mention.